Higher Ed Watch

A Blog from New America's Higher Education Initiative

Capped Variable Interest Rate Proposal Comes with a Hefty Price Tag

  • By
  • Jason Delisle
May 11, 2012

While Congress has debated extending the 3.4 percent interest rate on Subsidized Stafford loans issued this year to undergraduates, advocacy groups are gearing up for a debate on longer-term reforms. They know the odds don’t favor Congress adopting a one-year extension of the lower rate again next year. Besides, spending $6 billion to save college graduates $9 a month isn’t a great deal for borrowers or taxpayers. So it’s good that student aid advocates want a better plan. But they aren’t off to a great start. They are gathering support for an outrageously expensive proposal that turns a blind eye to far more worthy aid, like Pell Grants.

The student loan interest rate proposal that is dominating discussions among advocates and other stakeholders would provide borrowers with variable interest rates that would be capped at the current fixed rates of 6.8 percent on Stafford loans and 7.9 percent on PLUS loans for parents and graduate students.

The rate on all newly-issued federal loans would be adjusted annually based on interest rates on short-term (three month) U.S. Treasury debt, plus a markup of two to three percentage points to partially offset costs. Today, that would translate into an interest rate of about 3 percent. If short-term U.S. Treasury rates rise, the rate borrowers pay would too, though it would never exceed 6.8 percent. Such a proposal would represent a return to the policy of the 1990s and early 2000s, except the cap on the variable rate then was 8.25 percent.

This variable-rate-with-a-cap proposal would give borrowers a “heads-I-win, tails-you-lose” arrangement. If short-term rates stay low, borrowers benefit. If short-term rates rise, the loans convert to low, fixed rates and the borrower wins again. When short-term rates decline, the fixed-rate loan converts back to a variable rate, and the borrower wins again.

The policy effectively shelters borrowers from the financial tradeoffs that they would normally face when they choose between fixed and variable interest rates on loans in the private market. Variable rates are lower at first, but can go higher. Fixed rates might be higher on average, but they provide certainty.

The variable-rate-with-a-cap proposal doesn’t, however, make that fundamental tradeoff disappear. It just shifts the cost entirely onto taxpayers.

How much would taxpayers have to pay to provide borrowers with this no-lose insurance policy? According to sources on Capitol Hill, the Congressional Budget Office says it would cost $200 billion over 10 years.

To put this price tag in perspective, Congress could fund an $8,000 maximum Pell Grant (up from $5,550 today) for the next 10 years if it allocated an additional $200 billion to the program over that time period.

Still, there are other options for policymakers to modify student loan interest rates that would make meaningful improvements for borrowers without breaking the bank. One even generates savings (read more here).

Students and aid advocates would be wise to rally around some version of a more feasible interest rate reform proposal in the coming months. But if they really want to get behind a proposal that costs $200 billion, please make it one that supports the Pell Grant program rather than college graduates’ monthly budgets.

No-Cost Solution to Student Loan Interest Rates Hidden in Plain Sight

  • By
  • Jason Delisle
May 8, 2012

While Congress has debated extending the 3.4 percent interest rate on Subsidized Stafford loans issued this year to undergraduates, advocacy groups are gearing up for a debate on longer-term reforms. They know the odds don’t favor Congress adopting a one-year extension of the lower rate again next year. Besides, spending $6 billion to save college graduates $9 a month isn’t a great deal for borrowers or taxpayers. So it’s good that student aid advocates want a better plan. But they aren’t off to a great start. They are gathering support for an outrageously expensive proposal that turns a blind eye to far more worthy aid, like Pell Grants.

The student loan interest rate proposal that is dominating discussions among advocates and other stakeholders would provide borrowers with variable interest rates that would be capped at the current fixed rates of 6.8 percent on Stafford loans and 7.9 percent on PLUS loans for parents and graduate students.

The rate on all newly-issued federal loans would be adjusted annually based on interest rates on short-term (three month) U.S. Treasury debt, plus a markup of two to three percentage points to partially offset costs. Today, that would translate into an interest rate of about 3 percent. If short-term U.S. Treasury rates rise, the rate borrowers pay would too, though it would never exceed 6.8 percent. Such a proposal would represent a return to the policy of the 1990s and early 2000s, except the cap on the variable rate then was 8.25 percent.

This variable-rate-with-a-cap proposal would give borrowers a “heads-I-win, tails-you-lose” arrangement. If short-term rates stay low, borrowers benefit. If short-term rates rise, the loans convert to low, fixed rates and the borrower wins again. When short-term rates decline, the fixed-rate loan converts back to a variable rate, and the borrower wins again.

The policy effectively shelters borrowers from the financial tradeoffs that they would normally face when they choose between fixed and variable interest rates on loans in the private market. Variable rates are lower at first, but can go higher. Fixed rates might be higher on average, but they provide certainty.

The variable-rate-with-a-cap proposal doesn’t, however, make that fundamental tradeoff disappear. It just shifts the cost entirely onto taxpayers.

How much would taxpayers have to pay to provide borrowers with this no-lose insurance policy? According to sources on Capitol Hill, the Congressional Budget Office says it would cost $200 billion over 10 years.

To put this price tag in perspective, Congress could fund an $8,000 maximum Pell Grant (up from $5,550 today) for the next 10 years if it allocated an additional $200 billion to the program over that time period.

Still, there are other options for policymakers to modify student loan interest rates that would make meaningful improvements for borrowers without breaking the bank. One even generates savings (read more here).

Students and aid advocates would be wise to rally around some version of a more feasible interest rate reform proposal in the coming months. But if they really want to get behind a proposal that costs $200 billion, please make it one that supports the Pell Grant program rather than college graduates’ monthly budgets.

Issues:

Subsidized Stafford Student Loans are Already Interest-Free for the Unemployed

  • By
  • Jason Delisle
May 3, 2012

This post was first published as a response to a prompt on the National Journal’s Education Experts Blog on May 1, 2012. The prompt and responses from other experts can be viewed on the National Journal’s website here.

It’s important to think about “what protections [for borrowers] would be needed,” if Congress made changes to the interest rates on federal student loans. Even so, it seems hardly anyone understands the protections borrowers already get under the current federal loan system. What else could explain President Obama and Mitt Romney’s mutual misunderstanding that charging lower interest rates on Subsidized Stafford loans helps borrowers who can’t find a job?

Subsidized Stafford loans for undergraduates – the only type eligible for the 3.4 percent interest rate – include a special interest-free benefit. The interest clock on these loans is frozen while a borrower is enrolled in school and for up to three years if a borrower is unemployed or meets the rules for economic hardship. This means that keeping the interest rate on newly-issued Subsidized Stafford loans at 3.4 percent will not affect unemployed borrowers. The interest rate for these borrowers is automatically 0.0 percent.

Borrowers working part-time or in low-paying jobs need not worry about the interest rate on Subsidized Stafford loans (for three years) either if they enroll in the income-based repayment plan. This plan caps a borrower’s monthly payment at a share of his disposable income, regardless of the interest rate on the loans. But the deal is even sweeter for Subsidized Stafford loans. If a borrower’s monthly payment is too low to cover the interest that accrues, the government forgives it – up to three years’ worth.

These protections make the rhetoric about lowering interest rates to help college graduates weather a weak job market ill-informed at best. By definition, the campaign to keep interest rates lower on Subsidized Stafford loans is about keeping rates lower only for those borrowers who are employed and earn enough to be ineligible for the income-based repayment program. It is those fully-employed borrowers who are most able to swing the extra $9 a month (at most) that another year of loans offered at a 3.4 percent interest rate would otherwise save them.

Targeting a precious $6 billion right now to borrowers who have jobs and incomes high enough to cover the higher rate seems out of touch, especially when the Pell Grant program needs approximately that much next year to stave off a massive cut to the aid it provides.

Issues:

More Transparency Needed for Veterans Education Benefit Programs

  • By
  • Clare McCann
May 3, 2012

This was originally posted on Higher Ed Watch's sister blog, Ed Money Watch.

Every year the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) directs a huge chunk of federal spending to higher education for veterans education benefits — more than $1.7 billion in the 2009-10 school year alone. But VA education benefits are often overlooked in education policy discussions. This is largely because of a lack of transparency in the VA budget. The agency doesn’t make good accounting information readily available. On top of these opaque budgeting practices, little information is available on the effectiveness of the current iteration of the GI Bill, how schools spend that money, or the degree to which veterans actually benefit from these programs. That’s starting to change. But policymakers can do more.

President Obama issued an executive order last week to crack down on how schools use VA and Department of Defense (DoD) funds. (Benefits for veterans are provided through a slew of VA programs, most notably the Post-9/11 GI Bill. Active duty servicemembers receive funding through the Department of Defense’s Tuition Assistance Program, rather than through the G.I. Bill.)

Under the president’s order, all schools enrolled in VA’s Post-9/11 GI Bill program (approximately 6,000 institutions) will be encouraged—and all DoD Tuition Assistance participating institutions mandated—to improve transparency and provide documentation of tuition and fees, financial aid information, and details of student outcomes at the school – much like the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s (CFPB) proposed “Know Before You Owe” sheet. The order also restricts the recruiting practices of Institutions participating in veterans education benefit programs.

The president’s executive order seeks to improve the quality of services the DoD and VA provide students by developing a complaint system whereby the agency quickly responds to concerns about funding or support services. Media reports earlier this year revealed disturbing figures concerning VA administrative failures. Tens of thousands of veterans education benefits were stalled in processing – as many as 62,000 applicants in one branch alone. As a result, tuition payments hadn’t reached many schools and housing stipends were delayed for months in many cases.  The VA argued that during peak enrollment periods, it often experiences backlog. 

Separately, a new report from the Center for American Progress (CAP), “Easing the Transition from Combat to Classroom,” provides some previously unavailable information on veterans education benefits that also helps to illuminate some of the delays in processing mentioned above. Largely thanks to the passage of the Post-9/11 GI Bill, VA has seen a dramatic increase in federal education funding in recent years commensurate with increasing numbers of veterans and major enrollment growth – 37 percent from 2009 to 2010.

But the administrative concerns that the president seeks to address in his executive order beg a larger question: What is the quality of VA oversight?

Though lawmakers funnel a significant amount of education benefits to veterans through the VA, limited access to information about those funds and programs mean veterans—and taxpayers—are often left in the dark. Public funds are spent with minimal information as to the success of federal efforts. The president’s order may shine a light on certain aspects of VA Post-9/11 GI Bill, but it may not go far enough to provide veterans what they were promised – access to equitable and high-quality education.  That’s going to require more oversight and regulation from the White House and Congress.

The 'Small' Numbers on the Student Loan Interest Rate Hike

  • By
  • Jason Delisle
April 25, 2012

Yes, the interest rate on some federal student loans is set to double this July from 3.4 percent to 6.8 percent unless Congress acts. And every news story and sound bite on the issue tells us the big numbers at stake. Seven million borrowers will be affected… The rate hike will cost borrowers an additional $1,000… Outstanding student loans total $1 trillion… Maintaining the lower rate will cost taxpayers $6 billion a year. But now consider the small numbers at stake, the numbers that no one is talking about.

One year. That’s the number of years for which students have been able to take out loans at the 3.4 percent interest rate. Under current law, only Subsidized Stafford loans issued to undergraduate students for the 2011-12 school year qualify for the 3.4 percent rate. All loans issued earlier carry higher rates. It is also important to keep in mind that previously-issued loans will not be subject to the rate hike. The interest rate changes apply only to newly-issued loans.

One (more) year. That’s the number of years that borrowers would be able to take out Subsidized Stafford loans under President Obama’s proposal.  Loans issued in the following school year will again carry the 6.8 percent interest rate. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney supports the one-year extension, too. 

12 percent.  That is the share of dependent undergraduate students that will take out Subsidized Stafford loans who come from families earning incomes of $100,000 or higher. Eligibility rules for Subsidized Stafford loans take the “cost of attendance” into account, so students from high-income families attending the most expensive institutions of higher education can qualify for the lower rate. Meanwhile, students from families with lower incomes attending less expensive schools do not qualify for the 3.4 percent rate; they must pay the 6.8 percent rate.

One-third. That’s the share of all newly-issued federal student loans that qualify for the 3.4 percent rate under current law and under the one-year extension proposed by the president. The loans are available only to undergraduate students who qualify for a Subsidized Stafford loan by meeting a family income and ‘cost of attendance’ test, a subset of borrowers who will account for one-third of all federal student loans next year. The remaining 66 percent of loans will be made to all other undergraduate and graduate borrowers through Unsubsidized Stafford loans at the 6.8 percent rate, and parents of undergraduates or graduate students who exhaust their Stafford loan eligibility borrowing through the PLUS loan program at a 7.9 percent interest rate.

3 percent. That is the approximate share of the $1 trillion in outstanding student debt that will carry the 3.4 percent interest rate extension this year. The lower rate applies only to newly-issued Subsidized Stafford loans to undergraduates, and therefore does not affect rates on the $1 trillion in outstanding loans. Newly-issued Subsidized Stafford loans to undergraduates will total about $30 billion this year.

$5,500. That is the maximum amount that third- and fourth-year students can borrow at the 3.4 percent interest rate under current law and under the proposed one-year extension of the policy.

$9. The amount a borrower will save each month with a 3.4 percent rate compared to the 6.8 percent rate, assuming he borrows the $5,550 maximum allowable amount as a third- or fourth-year student.

$3,500. The maximum a first-year student can borrow at the 3.4 percent interest rate under current law and under the proposed one-year extension of the policy.

$0. How much lower a first-year student’s monthly payment will be at the 3.4 percent compared to the 6.8 percent rate, assuming he borrows the maximum amount. Borrowers must make monthly payments of at least $50 in repaying federal student loans. The first-year borrowing limit of $3,500 is low enough that under either interest rate, the minimum monthly payment is $50. To be sure, a borrower will make 79 monthly payments of $50 instead of 90 monthly payments of that amount if the loan carries the 3.4 percent interest rate.

These ‘small numbers’ help illustrate that the stakes aren’t as big as many – including the president – claim they are with respect to extending the 3.4 percent interest rate on some student loans for one more year. Policymakers in Washington would do much better to focus their time and attention on designing a permanent solution to the $7 billion funding cliff the Pell Grant program faces in 2014 and developing student loan interest rates that are more than arbitrary numbers.

Substantial Obstacles Exist to Implementing New Community College Graduation Rate Measures

  • By
  • Clare McCann
April 24, 2012

The U.S. Department of Education this month announced that it has developed a preliminary plan to increase reporting requirements for graduation rates at colleges and universities. The “Action Plan for Improving Measures of Postsecondary Success” was developed around input from the Committee on Measures of Student Success (CMSS), a committee appointed by the Department of Education as required by the passage of the Higher Education Opportunity Act of 2008. The pending regulations, which the Department is crafting both for two-year and four-year colleges, are intended to provide a fuller picture of college completion rates. But although the new graduation rates will pull more students under their umbrellas, schools may struggle to meet the data collection needs they trigger.

Community colleges particularly stand to benefit from the new regulations because part-time and transfer students, currently excluded from completion rate calculations, make up a large portion of enrolled students. Returning students – those in degree- or certificate-granting programs who are not entering college for the first time – may also be counted in the new completion rates.

Under the current system by which schools report graduation rates to the Department of Education, the measure is limited to students who complete community college with a degree or certificate. The metric does not give community colleges any credit for students who transfer to four-year institutions, even though that fulfills a central goal of community colleges. Furthermore, schools are not necessarily required to report transfer-out rates, and those that do face difficulties caused by limited data or capacity to analyze existing data. Although the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) reports both graduation rates and transfer-out rates, it reports them separately.

The Department of Education’s plan, following Committee recommendations, will include a requirement that institutions incorporate both graduates in degree or certification programs and students who transfer to a four-year degree-granting institution in its calculations of college completion rates. CMSS asserted that a combined graduation and transfer-out rate such as that one would provide a clearer picture of a school’s success.  

The Committee also recommended that institutions of higher education collect additional data, like the number of students earning a degree or certification in their two-year program who subsequently transferred to a four-year institution, those who transferred without completing their two-year program, and those who transferred after completing a two-year program but without earning a degree. Though the data collection requirements would be onerous, the information would provide a far more comprehensive view of schools’ outcomes. However, the Department did not adopt this recommendation in its plan. 

Recalculating graduation rates to include transfer-out students could bring community colleges much closer to President Obama’s goal—laid out in the American Graduation Initiative—of increasing the number of community college graduates by 5 million by 2020. According to the American Association of Community Colleges, counting those transfer students would increase the completion rate from 22 percent to 40 percent. (The Federal Education Budget Project, Ed Money Watch’s parent initiative, collects and displays the graduation and transfer-out rates for every community college that reports such data in its database.)

But perhaps the biggest hurdle for the new regulations is not defining them, but implementing them. To combat these challenges, the Committee recommended that the Department continue to incentivize states to create longitudinal data systems that track students’ postsecondary outcomes. And the Department’s action plan does, indeed, include references to the Statewide Longitudinal Data Systems grant program. It promises to help schools build capacity to collect and disseminate data.

Schools face significant challenges to implementation because there is no national system in place to track students’ transfers – something that would require substantial coordination across states and institutions. Even though some states might possess the capacity to track students within their own state, tracking that student across state lines becomes nearly impossible.

So the Committee also recommended that the Department establish a national data system requiring any school that administers federal student aid to collect and report to it comprehensive data on students (including those who transfer between schools). But such a system is explicitly disallowed under the Higher Education Opportunity Act of 2008 following outcries from privacy advocates and institutions wary of more extensive reporting requirements.

Although the Department has not yet issued a timeline on when it will start to implement the “Action Plan,” it remains to be seen whether schools will have the resources, time, and capacity to achieve the new standards without significant changes to their data collection and reporting systems. That would certainly be a costly endeavor in the current period of fiscal austerity. And without the ability to track students as they move around the country and across institutions, students—particularly those at the highest risk for jumping in and out of schools—could slip through the cracks.

The Federal Education Budget Project maintains the most comprehensive and easy-to-use database available on education funding, student demographics, and outcomes for every school district and institution of higher education in the country.Graduation rates and other data points for two- and four-year institutions are available from the Federal Education Budget Project here.

New Legislation Would Attempt to Protect Students from Unnecessary Debt

  • By
  • Clare McCann
April 12, 2012

We have written plenty here at Higher Ed Watch about federal student loan programs. But increasingly, students are borrowing from private lenders to fund their educations, often at less-favorable terms than those for which they might otherwise be eligible. A new piece of legislation introduced in the Senate, the Know Before You Owe Private Student Loan Act (S. 2280), would help students avoid unnecessary or costly private borrowing.

The bill, introduced by Senators Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Tom Harkin (D-IA) late last month, would place added responsibility on colleges and universities and private lenders to help students avoid unnecessary (and generally more expensive) private loans and instead take advantage of federal loans. Private student loans often have variable interest rates (in some cases capped at 18 percent), and lack benefits that come standard with federal loans like deferment, forbearance, and income-based repayment.

The current rules are meant to inform borrowers that they could be eligible for more federal loans and may not have to take out private loans. Congress and the U.S. Department of Education put the regulations in place in 2010. They require only that students or borrowers “self-certify” – sign a form that indicates the student’s expected cost of attendance.

The Senate bill aims to bolster that process. Under the proposed legislation, private lenders would be required to obtain confirmation of students’ enrollment statuses and their costs of attendance (minus Pell Grant awards, other federal grants and loans, and institutional aid) from the institutions of higher education before making loans to students. (Presumably this would introduce a check against students over-borrowing unnecessarily.)

Lenders would then be required to provide quarterly updates to borrowers detailing the status of their loans. The letter would include the amount of interest the borrower had accrued but not paid off, information on growth in the student’s debt since the last quarterly statement was issued, and the current interest rate charged on the loan (most private student loans offer variable interest rates, like those on credit cards, rather than the fixed rates that come standard on federal loans). Private lenders would also be required to report information on their loans to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). The specifics of that reporting would be set by the CFPB.

As for colleges and universities, they would have to confirm a student’s enrollment status and costs of attendance before the lender could make a loan, and they would be required to ensure students are familiar with federal loan options before taking out a private loan. In this role, institutions would have to check that the student had first applied for all available federal student aid, inform the student of any remaining federal options and how accepting a private loan could impact his eligibility for federal options in the future, and explain to the borrower that they can shop around among private lenders.

These consumer protections are particularly relevant given recent concerns about students taking on unmanageable debt loads. And as we’ve written on our sister blog Ed Money Watch, private loan borrowing occurs most at expensive for-profit schools, where student loan defaults are highest. What is more, fewer than half – only 46 percent – of private loan borrowers in undergraduate programs had exhausted their federal Stafford loan maximum, demonstrating that students are missing opportunities to borrow under the more-favorable federal terms available to them. 

In other words, students could benefit from more information about federal and private student loans. The Know Before You Owe Private Student Loan Act might just do the trick.

Obama Budget Punts on Tough Choices for Pell Grants

  • By
  • Jason Delisle
April 11, 2012

Many student aid advocates and pundits have panned the House Budget Committee’s loosely outlined funding plan for Pell Grants. The plan was part of the fiscal year 2013 budget resolution (aka the “Ryan Budget”) that the House passed a few weeks back. Critics say it would make deep cuts to Pell Grants and kick a million students out of the aid program. Indeed, the House Republican proposal would make some changes to the program to permanently address a $7 billion funding cliff that the program will face in 2014. But where were these critics when President Obama outlined his Pell Grant funding proposal earlier this year?

The president’s proposal included only a one-year fix for the massive $7 billion Pell Grant funding cliff. After the one-year fix, the president’s budget simply assumes that an extra $7 billion will materialize in the annual appropriation for Pell Grants each year. But this extra funding must be offset by $7 billion in cuts to other programs funded with annual appropriations, which the president’s budget doesn’t specify.

Do student aid advocates really believe the president’s “let’s not make tough decisions now; we’ll find an extra $7 billion later” is the better proposal?

Click here to read the full post on Ed Money Watch...

House Democrats’ Data on Student Loan Interest Rates Misrepresent the Problem

  • By
  • Clare McCann
April 6, 2012

Democrats on the House Education and the Workforce Committee this week released a document detailing the increased costs to borrowers if interest rates on Subsidized Stafford loans increase from 3.4 to 6.8 percent, as they are scheduled to for loans issued as on or after July 1st, 2012. The post provides some big numbers, stating that “more than 7 million students will incur an additional $6.3 billion in repayment costs for the 2012-2013 academic school year if student loan interest rates double on July 1.” But the committee staff’s claim buries the real story: Whatever the vitriol surrounding the interest rate number in Congress, individual students are not likely to notice much difference in their monthly payments.

There wasn’t much detail accompanying the committee document, so Ed Money Watch has tried to recreate the Democrats’ calculations.

Click here to read the full post on Ed Money Watch...

Unpacking Pell Grant Reforms in the House-Passed (“Ryan”) Budget

  • By
  • Jason Delisle
April 4, 2012

As we wrote last week, congressional budget resolutions are always light on details. At best, lawmakers include vague descriptions of policies that Congress could enact to meet spending goals. That’s exactly what House Republicans did for Pell Grant reforms in the fiscal year 2013 budget resolution that passed the House of Representatives last week. The document offers only a few hints about how lawmakers might fund Pell Grants as the program nears a major funding cliff in fiscal year 2014.

Using those hints, we’ve done some detective work to put together what we think the House Republicans might be after with respect to Pell Grant funding levels. The results suggest that House Republicans do in fact have a long-term plan for Pell Grants that would stave off a big cut to the maximum grant and/or avoid radical eligibility changes come 2014 – but their plan includes a few key tradeoffs.

Click here to read the full post on Ed Money Watch...

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